Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antwone KellyPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe homered to right (343 feet).5–1
- 6Ortiz singled to left, Yelich scored and Lara scored.5–0
- 6Lara doubled to right, Contreras scored, Yelich to third.3–0
- 6Yelich walked, Turang scored on Soto wild pitch, Contreras to third.2–0
- 2Lara hit sacrifice fly to center, Bauers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 65%
- ML MIL -217 / PIT +177
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.0%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -190
- PIT +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +16 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +49 Elo | MIL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–31 | Road vs home | 38–3414th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 1st of 301571 | Elo rating | 150014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–71 | 68–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 55–60 | 27–51 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 41–31 |
| Overs–unders | 67–77–6 | 76–67–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 29–20 PIT in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 49.