Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Bo NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett StallingsPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Khristian CurtisPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Davis homered to left (423 feet), Simon scored.4–7
- 8Naylor homered to right (338 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.4–5
- 8Frelick hit sacrifice fly to left, Mitchell scored.3–5
- 6Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ortiz scored on error, Frelick out at second, Naylor safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Griffin.2–5
- 2Lowe hit by pitch, Cruz scored, Flores Jr. to second, Reynolds to third.1–5
- 2Cruz singled to left, Davis scored and Griffin scored.1–4
- 2Griffin doubled to left, Simon scored and Triolo scored, Davis to third.1–2
- 2Hamilton singled to left, Ortiz scored, Frelick to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 56%
- ML MIL -143 / PIT +118
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | −26 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 1.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Wilber Dotel: team allows 1.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3043–31 | Road vs home | 38–3617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301574 | Elo rating | 149714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–72 | 69–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 56–61 | 27–51 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders | 68–78–6 | 77–68–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 31–20 PIT in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 36 of 51.