Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Frelick singled to right, Ortiz scored.6–5
- 9Encarnacion-Strand hit sacrifice fly to center, Mayo scored.5–5
- 9Basallo hit sacrifice fly to right, Henderson scored, Mayo to third.5–4
- 9Yelich singled to center, Contreras scored.5–3
- 9Contreras doubled to center, Turang scored.4–3
- 3Alonso homered to right (353 feet), Taveras scored and Beavers scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.3–3
- 2Chourio homered to center (419 feet), Lara scored and Pratt scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -149 / BAL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -134
- BAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +58 Elo | MIL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3043–32 | Road vs home | 36–3923rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 1st of 301572 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–73 | 78–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 56–62 | 34–43 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 44–32 |
| Overs–unders | 69–78–6 | 76–72–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–3 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.