Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-3
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Contreras singled to left, Mitchell scored and Turang scored.4–1
- 2Realmuto grounded out to second, Bohm scored, Marsh to second, Stott to third.2–1
- 2Yelich homered to right center (378 feet).2–0
- 1Turang homered to right center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -126 / PHI +104
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3046–33 | Road vs home | 42–3412th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 1st of 301573 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–75 | 72–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 57–63 | 53–63 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders | 71–80–6 | 74–74–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 12–10 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.