Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lara singled to center, Yelich scored.4–6
- 8Marsh doubled to center, Stott scored.3–6
- 8Stott singled to center, Arraez scored on error and Bohm scored on throwing error by center fielder Mitchell, Stott to second.3–5
- 6Contreras singled to left, Hamilton scored and Chourio scored.3–3
- 4Contreras hit sacrifice fly to left, Mitchell scored.1–3
- 3Bohm doubled to left, Turner scored, Arraez to third.0–3
- 2Marsh homered to right (390 feet), Stott scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML MIL +134 / PHI -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- MIL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.1 – 3.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +16 | MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +1 Elo | MIL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 1st of 3046–32 | Road vs home | 41–3412th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–74 | 71–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 57–63 | 52–63 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders | 70–80–6 | 73–74–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 12–9 PHI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.