Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Yankees- George Lombard Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz singled to left, Walls scored and Mullins scored, Díaz to second.6–1
- 7Lombard Jr. singled to right, Ramos scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.4–1
- 7Díaz singled to center, Williamson scored and Walls scored, Díaz to second. New York Yankees challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–0
- 7Walls reached on bunt single to pitcher, Simpson scored, Williamson to second.2–0
- 3Vilade grounded out to second, Walls scored, Mullins to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML TB +104 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.8%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- TB +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +26 Elo | NYY 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3040–35 | Road vs home | 43–329th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–71 | 86–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 52–47 | 59–60 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 70–81–5 | 70–80–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 24–25 NYY in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 49.