New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- George Lombard Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jones grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ramos scored, McMahon out at second, Rice to third.9–2
- 7Goldschmidt scored, McMahon safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Smith, Rice to second, Ramos to third.8–2
- 6Lombard Jr. homered to left (368 feet).7–2
- 3Rice homered to left center (390 feet).6–2
- 2Carroll homered to right (388 feet), Perdomo scored.5–2
- 1Lombard Jr. singled to left, Rice scored and Rosario scored.5–0
- 1Ramos scored on Rodriguez wild pitch, Rosario to second on wild pitch by Rodriguez, Rice to third on wild pitch by Rodriguez.3–0
- 1Ramos scored on Rodriguez wild pitch, Rosario to second on wild pitch by Rodriguez, Rice to third on wild pitch by Rodriguez.3–0
- 1Rosario singled to center, Bellinger scored, Rice to second, Ramos to third.2–0
- 1Rice walked, Goldschmidt scored, Ramos to second, Bellinger to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML NYY -106 / ARI -114
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 48.1%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.7 – 3.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +9 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +13 Elo | NYY 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3046–32 | Road vs home | 42–3411th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 150612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–68 | 81–72 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 58–59 | 25–43 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 67–79–6 | 62–83–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–4 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.