New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting3-4
- Bailey OberPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caballero singled to center, Lombard Jr. scored.8–1
- 6Jones homered to center (423 feet), Ramos scored and García Jr. scored.7–1
- 6Ramos doubled to left, Rice scored, Bellinger to third.4–1
- 3Lombard Jr. singled to right, Ramos scored, Jones to third.3–1
- 2Rodriguez singled to center, Lewis scored.2–1
- 1Bellinger homered to right center (399 feet), Rice scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML NYY -172 / MIN +142
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.2%, market 60.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -153
- MIN +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +72 Elo | NYY 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3045–31 | Road vs home | 39–3615th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301550 | Elo rating | 146626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–67 | 74–76 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 57–58 | 20–39 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 65–79–6 | 80–59–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–8 MIN in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.