Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Kaelen CulpepperBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio doubled to center, Genao scored and Martínez scored.5–2
- 9Bazzana scored on Gómez wild pitch, Genao to second on wild pitch by Gómez, Martínez to third on wild pitch by Gómez.3–2
- 9Bazzana scored on Gómez wild pitch, Genao to second on wild pitch by Gómez, Martínez to third on wild pitch by Gómez.3–2
- 7Culpepper singled to left, Martin scored.2–2
- 7Martínez homered to left center (445 feet), Bazzana scored.2–1
- 2Lewis doubled to left, Clemens scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -119 / MIN -101
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.7%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- MIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +10 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 8th of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 38–3313th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–78 | 74–72 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 54–36 |
| Overs–unders | 70–76–1 | 78–57–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 30–19 MIN in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 49.