Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martínez doubled to center, Adell scored.9–2
- 9Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Bazzana scored, Adell to third.8–2
- 9Adell hit a ground rule double, Halpin scored, Bazzana to third.7–2
- 7Larnach homered to right (366 feet).6–2
- 6Bazzana homered to right center (395 feet), Rocchio scored.6–1
- 4Bazzana singled to right, Kwan scored.4–1
- 4Kwan doubled to right, Rocchio scored.3–1
- 3Clemens doubled to left, Keaschall scored.2–1
- 3Adell homered to left (451 feet).2–0
- 1Kwan homered to right (357 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML CLE +104 / MIN -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +4 Elo | CLE 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 3039–35 | Road vs home | 39–3413th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 147225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–78 | 74–74 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 20–38 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 54–36 |
| Overs–unders | 70–78–1 | 78–59–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 31–20 MIN in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 51.