Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Twins- Emmanuel RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Kwan singled to center, Hedges scored.3–4
- 5Rocchio grounded out to second, Fry scored, Hedges to third.2–4
- 3Caratini hit by pitch, Clemens scored, Kreidler to second, Lewis to third.1–4
- 3Lewis singled to center, Lee scored, Clemens to third.1–3
- 3Clemens singled to center, Keaschall scored, Lee to second.1–2
- 3Rodriguez homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 2Bazzana singled to center, Adell scored, Martínez thrown out at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML CLE -109 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.8%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- CLE +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −17 | CLE: Daniel Espino (no track record yet) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3039–34 | Road vs home | 38–3414th of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 147025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–78 | 74–73 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–56 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 42–22 | 54–36 |
| Overs–unders | 70–77–1 | 78–58–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 31–19 MIN in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 50.