New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells homered to right (371 feet).8–3
- 8Bell homered to right (370 feet).7–3
- 8Judge homered to left (415 feet), Rice scored and Bellinger scored.7–2
- 8Rice singled to center, Volpe scored and Caballero scored.4–2
- 8Caballero singled to center, Lombard Jr. scored, Volpe to second.2–2
- 6Rodriguez tripled to center, Clemens scored and Bell scored.1–2
- 3Caballero homered to left (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -132 / MIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.9%, market 54.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −10 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +62 Elo | NYY 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3044–31 | Road vs home | 39–3515th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301548 | Elo rating | 146925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–67 | 74–75 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 56–58 | 20–39 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 54–36 |
| Overs–unders | 64–79–6 | 79–59–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 14–8 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.