New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Twins- Ryan KreidlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 13Caratini singled to center, Keaschall scored.4–5
- 11Lewis hit sacrifice fly to center, Jenkins scored, Clemens to second.4–4
- 11Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Lombard Jr. scored.4–3
- 10Keaschall singled to left, Lee scored.3–3
- 10Sánchez singled to center, Bellinger scored.3–2
- 9Volpe doubled to right, Caballero scored and Lombard Jr. scored.2–2
- 5Kreidler homered to left (386 feet).0–2
- 1Bell singled to left, Keaschall scored, Jeffers to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -163 / MIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +64 Elo | NYY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3046–31 | Road vs home | 39–3717th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301553 | Elo rating | 146427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–67 | 74–77 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 58–58 | 20–39 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 54–38 |
| Overs–unders | 66–79–6 | 81–59–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–8 MIN in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.