Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Rays- Liam HicksBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hicks reached on infield single to second, Aranda scored and Walls scored, Caminero to third.1–10
- 6Aranda walked, Mullins scored, Walls to second, Palacios to third.1–8
- 6Walls walked, Simpson scored, Palacios to second, Mullins to third.1–7
- 6Butler homered to right (437 feet).1–6
- 4Walls reached on bunt single to third, Palacios scored.0–6
- 4Palacios doubled to right, DeLuca scored, Vilade scored on fielding error by catcher Heim and Simpson scored, Palacios to third.0–5
- 4Simpson singled to center, Caminero scored and Hicks scored, DeLuca to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TB 70%
- ML ATH +223 / TB -279
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TB: Elo 70.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -238
- ATH +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +12 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +151 Elo | TB 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 71.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–45 | Road vs home | 52–251st of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 29th of 301434 | Elo rating | 15347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–78 | 83–68 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 50–45 |
| Underdog | 63–50 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 77–69–6 | 69–77–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 8–17 TB in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.