Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Lazaro MontesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Walton homered to right (366 feet), Stefanic scored.5–6
- 10Rodríguez singled to center, Arozarena scored.5–4
- 6Montes homered to right center (430 feet), Naylor scored.4–4
- 3Butler homered to right (394 feet), McNeil scored.2–4
- 2We. Wilson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Naylor scored, Ward out at second.2–2
- 1Muncy reached on infield single to second, McNeil scored on error, Muncy safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Young.1–2
- 1McNeil doubled to center, Bolte scored.1–1
- 1Raleigh grounded into fielder's choice to third, Arozarena scored, Canzone out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -167 / ATH +138
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.1%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- ATH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −22 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +49 Elo | SEA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–43 | Road vs home | 27–4530th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 143729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–88 | 70–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–66 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 59–49 |
| Overs–unders | 75–63–9 | 74–67–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 33–16 ATH in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 49.