Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tommy WhiteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady BassoPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Langeliers singled to center, McNeil scored.3–4
- 3Bolte homered to center (414 feet).2–4
- 3White homered to left (347 feet).1–4
- 2Vilade singled to left, Fortes scored.0–4
- 2Fortes doubled to left, Mateo scored.0–3
- 1Simpson doubled to right, DeLuca scored.0–2
- 1DeLuca doubled to left, Caminero scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 63%
- ML ATH +157 / TB -191
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TB: Elo 64.4%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -169
- ATH +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.4 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +9 | ATH: Brady Basso: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +103 Elo | TB 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 51–252nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 29th of 301435 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–78 | 83–67 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 50–44 |
| Underdog | 62–50 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 77–68–6 | 69–76–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 8–16 TB in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.