Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting3-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arroyo hit sacrifice fly to right, Rodden scored.19–1
- 9Young singled to left, Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored, Rodden to third.18–1
- 8Montes walked, Young scored, We. Wilson to second, Arroyo to third.16–1
- 8Arroyo singled to center, Rodden scored, Young to second.15–1
- 8Young reached on infield single to second, Rodríguez scored, Rodden to third.14–1
- 8Naylor doubled to right, Robles scored, Rodríguez to third.13–1
- 7Crawford homered to center (413 feet), We. Wilson scored.12–1
- 7Arroyo homered to left center (418 feet).10–1
- 5Young homered to right center (407 feet), Naylor scored.9–1
- 4Arozarena singled to center, We. Wilson scored.7–1
- 4We. Wilson singled to center, Arroyo scored.6–1
- 3Langeliers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bolte scored, McNeil out at second.5–1
- 2Arozarena homered to left center (411 feet), We. Wilson scored and Crawford scored.5–0
- 1Canzone homered to right center (382 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / ATH +128
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.5%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -139
- ATH +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.1 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3029–44 | Road vs home | 28–4530th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 143829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–89 | 71–77 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–67 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 60–49 |
| Overs–unders | 76–63–9 | 75–67–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 33–17 ATH in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 50.