Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler homered to right center (402 feet), Gelof scored.7–8
- 8Arozarena homered to left (375 feet).7–6
- 7Langeliers singled to right, McNeil scored and Gelof scored.6–6
- 7Butler grounded out to second, Bolte scored, Gelof to second, McNeil to third.6–4
- 7Gelof walked, Williams scored, McNeil to second, Bolte to third. Seattle Mariners challenged: call on the field was upheld.6–3
- 5Pereda walked, Raleigh scored, Arroyo to second, Naylor to third.6–2
- 4Arozarena singled to center, We. Wilson scored, Crawford to second.5–2
- 4Crawford reached on infield single to pitcher, Arroyo scored, We. Wilson to second.4–2
- 4Pereda hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored, Arroyo to third.3–2
- 3Arozarena homered to left, Pereda scored.2–2
- 1Butler homered to right center (405 feet).0–2
- 1Gelof homered to left (405 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -131 / ATH +109
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −41 | +14 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 2.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +19 Elo | ATH 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–44 | Road vs home | 28–4630th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 143529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–89 | 71–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–67 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 60–50 |
| Overs–unders | 77–63–9 | 76–67–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 34–17 ATH in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 51.