New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- George Lombard Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carroll singled to right, Perdomo scored.4–8
- 7Perdomo tripled to right, Moreno scored.4–7
- 5Arenado homered to left (381 feet), Marte scored, Moreno scored and Carroll scored.4–6
- 5Carroll walked, Nootbaar scored, Moreno to second, Marte to third.4–2
- 3Jones homered to center (448 feet).4–1
- 3Lombard Jr. homered to left (424 feet), García Jr. scored.3–1
- 3Ramos homered to left center (388 feet).1–1
- 1Perdomo singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Marte to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML NYY +105 / ARI -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 46.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3047–33 | Road vs home | 43–3511th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301552 | Elo rating | 150513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–69 | 82–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 58–60 | 25–44 |
| Underdog | 27–9 | 57–29 |
| Overs–unders | 69–79–6 | 64–83–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–5 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.