New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to right center (391 feet), Vargas scored.3–5
- 6Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored, Perdomo to second, Moreno to third.3–3
- 6Wells homered to right (393 feet).3–2
- 6Ramos homered to right (373 feet).2–2
- 5Lawlar tripled to center, Arenado scored and Tawa scored.1–2
- 5Rice hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -162 / ARI +134
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 3.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +39 Elo | NYY 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 3047–32 | Road vs home | 42–3512th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301554 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–68 | 81–73 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 58–59 | 25–44 |
| Underdog | 27–9 | 56–29 |
| Overs–unders | 68–79–6 | 63–83–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–4 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.