Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rays- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Story homered to left (405 feet).1–5
- 4Mesa Jr. homered to right center (403 feet).0–5
- 1Simpson singled to right, Caminero scored and DeLuca scored.0–4
- 1DeLuca doubled to left, Díaz scored and Vilade scored, Caminero to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML BOS +127 / TB -153
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- TB: Elo 52.2%, market 57.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -137
- BOS +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −4 | BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +15 Elo | TB 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3046–34 | Road vs home | 54–262nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15357th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–78 | 84–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–58 | 51–47 |
| Underdog | 34–20 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 70–81–4 | 70–79–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 24–27 TB in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 51.