Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nick SogardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Sogard homered to right (357 feet), Durbin scored.2–4
- 2Seager singled to left, Díaz scored and Jansen scored, Foscue to third.0–4
- 2Díaz doubled to left, Duran scored and Nimmo scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML BOS +123 / TEX -148
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 46.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +24 Elo | BOS 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3044–31 | Road vs home | 40–3211th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 5th of 301541 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–75 | 67–83 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–57 | 28–53 |
| Underdog | 32–18 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders | 69–77–4 | 75–64–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–10 TEX in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.