Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Story homered to left center (394 feet), Abreu scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.4–3
- 7Anthony grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Eaton scored on error, Anthony safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Lopez, Durbin to second.1–3
- 2Carter hit sacrifice bunt to first, Burger scored, Jansen to second.0–3
- 2Jansen singled to center, Langford scored, Burger to third.0–2
- 1Jung homered to right (369 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -130 / TEX +108
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.2%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- TEX +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +8 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +36 Elo | BOS 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3044–33 | Road vs home | 42–329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–77 | 69–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 43–57 | 30–53 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders | 70–78–4 | 76–65–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–12 TEX in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.