Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Seager singled to right, Osuna scored.3–7
- 7Duran singled to left, Burger scored and Nimmo scored.3–6
- 7Nimmo doubled to center, Seager scored, Burger to third.3–4
- 5Langford singled to center, Jung scored.3–3
- 5Durbin scored on a balk, Story to third on a balk.3–2
- 5Durbin scored on a balk, Story to third on a balk.3–2
- 4Foscue singled to center, Langford scored, Jansen to second.2–2
- 1Burger hit a ground rule double, Foscue scored, Jung to third.2–1
- 1Contreras homered to left center (403 feet), Abreu scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -114 / TEX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.7%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +40 Elo | BOS 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3044–32 | Road vs home | 41–3210th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–76 | 68–83 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–57 | 29–53 |
| Underdog | 32–19 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders | 69–78–4 | 75–65–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–11 TEX in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.