Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramos hit sacrifice fly to right, Sánchez scored, Rice to third.2–9
- 5Mullins homered to right (375 feet).2–8
- 4Rice homered to right center (383 feet).1–8
- 4DeLuca doubled to right, Hicks scored.1–7
- 3McMahon homered to right (332 feet), García Jr. scored, Chisholm Jr. scored and Caballero scored.0–7
- 3Lombard Jr. homered to right center (384 feet).0–3
- 2McMahon singled to center, Jones scored.0–2
- 1Rice homered to right (379 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML TB +118 / NYY -143
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -128
- TB +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | TB: Mason Englert: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +30 Elo | NYY 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3041–35 | Road vs home | 43–339th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–71 | 86–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 52–47 | 59–61 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 71–81–5 | 71–80–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 25–25 NYY in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 50.