Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Yankees- George Lombard Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lombard Jr. homered to left (400 feet), Rosario scored.4–6
- 7Goldschmidt singled to center, Wells scored, Caballero to third.4–4
- 7Volpe walked, Lombard Jr. scored on Hopkins wild pitch.4–3
- 7Lombard Jr. doubled to left, Rice scored.4–2
- 6Wells homered to center (403 feet).4–1
- 6Hicks grounded into fielder's choice to first, Vilade scored, Hicks to first on error by pitcher Gil, Díaz out at second.4–0
- 5Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored.3–0
- 3Caminero singled to center, Díaz scored.2–0
- 3Díaz singled to right, Walls scored on throwing error by right fielder Ramos, Díaz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TB +123 / NYY -149
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -133
- TB +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.7 – 3.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +43 Elo | NYY 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3041–36 | Road vs home | 44–338th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–72 | 87–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 52–47 | 60–61 |
| Underdog | 34–25 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 72–81–5 | 72–80–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 25–26 NYY in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 51.