Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mesa Jr. reached on infield single to second, Mateo scored.3–7
- 7DeLuca homered to right center (374 feet).2–7
- 5Sosa homered to right (351 feet).1–7
- 5Marsh hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored.1–6
- 5Harper homered to right (366 feet).1–5
- 5DeLuca homered to left center (382 feet).1–4
- 2Schwarber doubled to right, Realmuto scored and Turner scored.0–4
- 2Realmuto doubled to left, Sosa scored.0–2
- 1Stott doubled to right, Schwarber scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML TB +169 / PHI -207
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- TB +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.6 – 3.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +14 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +11 Elo | PHI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–37 | Road vs home | 42–3813th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–73 | 72–89 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–47 | 53–66 |
| Underdog | 36–26 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 74–82–5 | 75–77–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–9 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.