Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to center (407 feet), Harris II scored.8–3
- 7Hernández tripled to left, Lopez scored.6–3
- 4Conine singled to left, Ramírez scored, Ruiz to second.6–2
- 4Sanoja homered to left center (384 feet).6–1
- 4Olson reached on infield single to first, Harris II scored.6–0
- 4Harris II doubled to left, Kim scored.5–0
- 2Acuña Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Kim scored, Harris II to second, Harris II safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Sanoja.4–0
- 2Smith homered to right center (402 feet), Yastrzemski scored.3–0
- 1Olson hit sacrifice fly to shortstop, Harris II scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -118 / MIA -102
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +2 | ATL: Brent Suter: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Jack Ralston (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +12 Elo | ATL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–38 | Road vs home | 46–337th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–73 | 81–79 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 50–57 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 51–42 |
| Overs–unders | 73–79–8 | 81–75–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 34–16 MIA in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.