Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Conine homered to right (415 feet).3–5
- 7Dubón singled to right, Hicklen scored.3–4
- 7Keirsey Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Kim scored, Hicklen to second.2–4
- 6Serna doubled to left, De Los Santos scored and Ruiz scored.1–4
- 6Ruiz singled to center, Hernández scored.1–2
- 4Hernández homered to left center (395 feet).1–1
- 3Dubón homered to left center (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML ATL +105 / MIA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.9%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.9 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −4 | ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3041–38 | Road vs home | 46–347th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 8th of 301531 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–73 | 81–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 50–57 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 38–16 | 51–42 |
| Overs–unders | 74–79–8 | 82–75–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 35–16 MIA in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.