Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley homered to right center (385 feet), Harris II scored and Albies scored.3–5
- 7Realmuto tripled to right, De La Cruz scored and Stott scored.3–2
- 6Albies tripled to center, Harris II scored.1–2
- 2Yastrzemski singled to center, Albies scored, Riley to third.1–1
- 1Bohm doubled to center, Schwarber scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML PHI +158 / ATL -192
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.5%, market 62.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- PHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +19 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +18 Elo | ATL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3044–36 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15299th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–89 | 88–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 54–66 | 50–57 |
| Underdog | 19–23 | 38–17 |
| Overs–unders | 76–77–9 | 74–79–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 26–30 ATL in their last 56 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 56.