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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast

FinalATL wins series 2-1

Away

Phillies

88-74

2–6

at

Home

Braves

94-68

PHI 49%ATL 51%

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Truist Park · NBC, Peacock

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.

ATL75%50%75%PHIStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Phillies
  • Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3
  • Zack WheelerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves
  • Michael Harris IIBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Ray KerrPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Hill scored.2–6
  • 7Olson homered to center (416 feet).1–6
  • 6Bohm grounded out to shortstop, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.1–5
  • 4Albies homered to right center (419 feet), Riley scored.0–5
  • 1Harris II homered to right center (387 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored.0–3

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Braves 51%

Toss-upHit
PHI 49%ATL 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
ATL 51%
ML PHI -106 / ATL -114
Pre-line forecast
ATL 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ATL 52%
Ratings vs. market
+1.1 pts
ATL: Elo 52.0%, market 50.9%
Fair odds
ATL -104
PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 3.7 – 3.8 ATL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIATLWhy
Team rating15291529Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−11−15PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Ray Kerr: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsATL +14 EloATL 52.0%
Market-implied ratingsATL 52.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastATL 52.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastATL 50.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatATL
19th of 304.4Runs scored4.69th of 30
11th of 304.3Runs allowed3.95th of 30
12th of 30+0.1Margin+0.75th of 30
20th of 304–6Last 105–512th of 30
5th of 3044–36Road vs home52–293rd of 30
14th of 301501Opponent Elo150113th of 30
8th of 301529Elo rating15297th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PhilliesBraves
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIATL
Run line74–9089–75
Last 104–64–6
Favorite54–6651–58
Underdog20–2438–17
Overs–unders77–77–1075–79–10
Overs–unders, last 106–3–14–4–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 27–31 ATL in their last 58 meetings; the forecast called 36 of 58.