Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Didier FuentesPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to right center (397 feet).3–2
- 7Harris II doubled to right, Olson scored.3–1
- 5Harris II scored on Bubic wild pitch.2–1
- 5Harris II scored on Bubic wild pitch.2–1
- 4Freeman homered to right (375 feet).1–1
- 1Dubón reached on infield single to shortstop, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second, Olson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML ATL +174 / LAD -213
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- ATL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | ATL: Ray Kerr: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +66 Elo | LAD 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 51–304th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–76 | 75–88 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 52–58 | 67–85 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 76–80–10 | 71–86–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–15 LAD in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.