Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Giants- Victor BericotoBatting1-3
- Yunior MartePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 2Pages homered to left (389 feet).2–0
- 2T. Hernández homered to left (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 74%
- ML LAD -337 / SF +264
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.0%, market 73.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -281
- SF +281 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 2.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Yunior Marte: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +85 Elo | LAD 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 72.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3046–32 | Road vs home | 37–4124th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301566 | Elo rating | 146925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–87 | 80–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 64–84 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 60–49 |
| Overs–unders | 71–83–5 | 75–71–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 31–18 SF in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 49.