San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Victor BericotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yunior MartePitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6De Paula singled to center, Muncy scored and Smith scored, Tucker to second.4–10
- 6Smith singled to center, Betts scored. Los Angeles Dodgers challenged: call on the field was overturned.4–8
- 5Rojas singled to left, De Paula scored, Edman thrown out at home.4–7
- 5Edman singled to left, T. Hernández scored and Tucker scored, De Paula to second, Edman to second, De Paula safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Hill.4–6
- 5Lee doubled to right, Bericoto scored.4–4
- 4Betts doubled to left, Freeland scored.3–4
- 4Cox hit sacrifice bunt to first, Knizner scored, Basabe to third.3–3
- 3Smith homered to left (422 feet).2–3
- 3Bericoto homered to center (425 feet), Hill scored.2–2
- 2Betts singled to right, De Paula scored, Freeland to second.0–2
- 1Muncy doubled to right, Betts scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 77%
- ML SF +318 / LAD -415
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.3%, market 77.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -337
- SF +337 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +8 | SF: Yunior Marte: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +102 Elo | LAD 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 73.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 77.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–51 | Road vs home | 48–284th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15652nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–76 | 69–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 61–82 |
| Underdog | 58–46 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 74–67–13 | 70–79–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–29 LAD in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 47.