San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony MolinaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Leo BernalBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Saggese hit sacrifice fly to center, Burleson scored, Scott II to third.6–5
- 10Gilbert homered to center (415 feet), McCray scored.6–4
- 9Bernal singled to right, Saggese scored, Winn to third.4–4
- 9Fermín hit sacrifice fly to center, Gorman scored.4–3
- 8Knizner singled to left, Whitcomb scored.4–2
- 7Saggese scored on T. Harris wild pitch, Pagés to second on wild pitch by T. Harris, Church to third on wild pitch by T. Harris.3–2
- 7Saggese scored on T. Harris wild pitch, Pagés to second on wild pitch by T. Harris, Church to third on wild pitch by T. Harris.3–2
- 7Walker scored on error, Church safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Koss, Church safe at second on error, Saggese safe at third on error.3–1
- 7Cox singled to right, Knizner scored and Koss scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker, Cox to second.3–0
- 3B. Harris grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Cox scored, Eldridge out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML SF +141 / STL -171
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- STL: Elo 53.0%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -152
- SF +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −15 | SF: Anthony Molina: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +21 Elo | STL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3027–50 | Road vs home | 37–4022nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 24th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–75 | 83–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 17–40 |
| Underdog | 57–45 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 72–67–13 | 69–75–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–11 STL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.