Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Joshua BaezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murakami grounded into fielder's choice to first, Antonacci scored, Teel out at second.3–7
- 7Bernal singled to left, Báez scored.2–7
- 5Bernal singled to left, Báez scored.2–6
- 5Báez doubled to left, Burleson scored.2–5
- 5Burleson singled to center, Walker scored.2–4
- 3Báez singled to center, Walker scored, Báez to second.2–3
- 3Meidroth homered to left center (391 feet).2–2
- 2Winn grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bernal scored, Saggese out at second.1–2
- 1Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored.1–1
- 1Meidroth homered to center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML CHW -111 / STL -109
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.0%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- STL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −20 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +7 Elo | CHW 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 34–3825th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–69 | 81–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–31 | 15–37 |
| Underdog | 62–38 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 81–63–2 | 66–73–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–6 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.