Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting1-4
- David SandlinPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Burleson doubled to right, Church scored, Herrera scored and Winn scored.1–3
- 2Meidroth hit sacrifice fly to center, Benintendi scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML CHW -120 / STL -101
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CHW: Elo 49.9%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −14 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +1 Elo | STL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 35–3926th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 149118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–70 | 82–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–31 | 16–38 |
| Underdog | 63–39 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 83–63–2 | 68–73–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–7 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.