Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Leo BernalBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grichuk homered to right (358 feet), Doyle scored.6–5
- 8Bernal homered to right center (421 feet).4–5
- 5Peters singled to center, Vargas scored, Peters out stretching at second.4–4
- 5Grichuk grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Teel scored, Murakami out at second, Vargas to third.3–4
- 5Murakami walked, Antonacci scored, Vargas to second, Teel to third.2–4
- 4Church doubled to right, Gorman scored.1–4
- 4C. Montgomery walked, Murakami scored, Meidroth to second, Peters to third.1–3
- 2Fermín hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.0–3
- 2Winn doubled to left, Gorman scored and Saggese scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML CHW -111 / STL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- CHW: Elo 45.7%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- STL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +10 | CHW: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +30 Elo | STL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–41 | Road vs home | 35–3825th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–70 | 82–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–31 | 16–37 |
| Underdog | 62–39 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 82–63–2 | 67–73–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–7 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.