San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hill homered to right center (395 feet).10–3
- 8Gorman singled to right, Fermín scored.9–3
- 8Eldridge doubled to right, B. Harris scored.9–2
- 4Basabe doubled to right, Eldridge scored.8–2
- 3Herrera hit sacrifice fly to left, Winn scored.7–2
- 3Koss singled to right, Cavanaugh scored and McCray scored.7–1
- 3McCray singled to center, Lee scored, Cavanaugh to third.5–1
- 3Hill grounded out to shortstop, Cox scored, Lee to third.4–1
- 1Burleson homered to right center (376 feet).3–1
- 1Hill singled to right, Cox scored.3–0
- 1Eldridge homered to right center (461 feet), Gilbert scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 62%
- ML SF +154 / STL -187
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- STL: Elo 59.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -165
- SF +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +7 | SF: Blade Tidwell: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +67 Elo | STL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3026–50 | Road vs home | 37–3921st of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–75 | 83–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 17–39 |
| Underdog | 56–45 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 71–67–13 | 68–75–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–11 STL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.