San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jonah CoxBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Leo BernalBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Quinn MathewsPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cox singled to center, McCray scored.1–2
- 5Bernal singled to right, Herrera scored, Walker to second, Burleson to third.0–2
- 5Burleson singled to right, Saggese scored, Herrera to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML SF +129 / STL -156
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- STL: Elo 55.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -140
- SF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Quinn Mathews: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +40 Elo | STL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–49 | Road vs home | 36–3921st of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301471 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–75 | 83–67 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 17–38 |
| Underdog | 55–45 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 71–66–13 | 68–74–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–10 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.