San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cesar PerdomoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to center (398 feet).2–8
- 8Betts homered to left center (389 feet), De Paula scored.2–7
- 8Tucker homered to right center (403 feet).2–5
- 8Muncy homered to right center (420 feet).2–4
- 6De Paula doubled to right, Tucker scored.2–3
- 5T. Hernández singled to right, De Paula scored, Betts to second.2–2
- 3Cox singled to left, Bandura scored, Gilbert to second.2–1
- 2Lee homered to right (377 feet).1–1
- 1Betts homered to left center (393 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML SF +254 / LAD -321
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.1%, market 73.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -270
- SF +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.9 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | SF: Cesar Perdomo: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +108 Elo | LAD 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 70.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–50 | Road vs home | 47–284th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15642nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–75 | 68–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 60–82 |
| Underdog | 58–45 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 73–67–13 | 69–79–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–28 LAD in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 46.