Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Walker JenkinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting1-3
- Anthony MolinaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cox grounded into fielder's choice to third, B. Harris scored, Basabe to second, Knizner to third.3–2
- 7Jenkins homered to right (361 feet).3–1
- 6Lee singled to right, Keaschall scored.2–1
- 6Keaschall tripled to center, Kreidler scored.1–1
- 2Cavanaugh hit sacrifice bunt to third, Whitcomb scored, Bandura to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML MIN -144 / SF +119
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.3%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- SF +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony Molina: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +12 Elo | SF 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–46 | Road vs home | 37–3921st of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 26th of 301467 | Elo rating | 147224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–78 | 79–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–40 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 59–38 | 59–48 |
| Overs–unders | 84–61–12 | 75–69–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.