Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan KreidlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jose SiriBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Moore reached on infield single to pitcher, Neto scored, Grissom to second, Trout to third.5–6
- 9Grissom homered to center (400 feet).5–5
- 8Frazier doubled to right, Guzman scored and Lowe scored.5–4
- 8Caratini singled to right, Ross scored, Lewis to third.5–2
- 5Kreidler homered to left (383 feet).4–2
- 4Siri homered to right center (376 feet), Guzman scored.3–2
- 4Caratini singled to left, Lee scored.3–0
- 3Martin grounded out to shortstop, Keaschall scored.2–0
- 3Keaschall doubled to left, Jenkins scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML MIN +105 / LAA -126
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 51.7%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.4 – 3.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +12 Elo | LAA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3032–44 | Road vs home | 33–4628th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 26th of 301466 | Elo rating | 144528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–77 | 73–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–39 | 9–27 |
| Underdog | 57–38 | 64–54 |
| Overs–unders | 83–60–11 | 64–87–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 15–8 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.