Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kade AndersonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jose SiriBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crawford homered to right center (393 feet).4–6
- 5Guzman singled to center, Neto scored and Siri scored, Grissom to third.3–6
- 4Raleigh homered to right center (376 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.3–4
- 3Siri singled to left, Neto scored.0–4
- 3Neto tripled to left, Meckler scored.0–3
- 1Grissom hit sacrifice fly to left, Siri scored.0–2
- 1Siri doubled to left, Trout scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML SEA -108 / LAA -112
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 46.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- LAA -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +11 | SEA: Kade Anderson: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.130th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–45 | Road vs home | 30–4429th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 144628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–90 | 71–78 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 35–68 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 63–53 |
| Overs–unders | 78–63–9 | 61–85–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–19 LAA in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 45.