Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Angels- Josh LoweBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lowe homered to center (388 feet).1–2
- 6Rodríguez doubled to center, Canzone scored.1–1
- 5Grissom doubled to left, Meckler scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -167 / LAA +138
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.9%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 3.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +10 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +27 Elo | SEA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.129th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–46 | Road vs home | 31–4429th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 144828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–91 | 72–78 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 35–68 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 63–53 |
| Overs–unders | 79–63–9 | 62–85–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–20 LAA in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 46.