Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting4-5
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raleigh singled to left, Arozarena scored, Canzone to second.7–2
- 6Canzone singled to left, Crawford scored, Arozarena to third.6–2
- 5Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Canzone scored and Raleigh scored on error, Rodríguez safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Grissom.5–2
- 5Raleigh doubled to left, Arozarena scored, Canzone to third.3–2
- 2Frazier singled to left, Guzman scored, Lowe to second.2–2
- 1Grissom hit sacrifice fly to left, Neto scored.2–1
- 1Naylor singled to right, Arozarena scored, Canzone to third.2–0
- 1Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to left, Crawford scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -131 / LAA +109
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.129th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.526th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–47 | Road vs home | 32–4428th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 144928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–92 | 73–78 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 35–69 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 64–53 |
| Overs–unders | 79–64–9 | 62–86–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 26–21 LAA in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 47.