San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Victor BericotoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Matt WilkinsonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Freeman to third.1–3
- 7E. Hernández doubled to center, Muncy scored, De Paula to third.1–2
- 6Edman homered to right (400 feet).1–1
- 1Bericoto singled to right, Cox scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML SF +229 / LAD -287
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.0%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -244
- SF +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −25 | SF: Matt Wilkinson: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Dreyer: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +92 Elo | LAD 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–52 | Road vs home | 49–284th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 15672nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–77 | 70–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 62–82 |
| Underdog | 58–47 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 75–67–13 | 71–79–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–30 LAD in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 48.