Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blade TidwellPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodriguez homered to center (411 feet).2–5
- 5Gilbert homered to right (375 feet).1–5
- 4Lee homered to right center (387 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.1–4
- 2Gilbert singled to left, Basabe scored and Koss scored.0–4
- 1B. Harris singled to center, Gilbert scored and Davidson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIN -136 / SF +113
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- SF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −12 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blade Tidwell: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +3 Elo | MIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–45 | Road vs home | 36–3922nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Elo rating | 147025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–77 | 78–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–39 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 59–38 | 58–48 |
| Overs–unders | 84–60–12 | 75–68–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–4 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.