San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to left, Taylor scored.5–1
- 5Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.4–1
- 5Harris grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Salas scored on throwing error by pitcher Yamamoto, Harris second, Tatis Jr. safe at third on error.3–1
- 4Edman hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored.2–1
- 4Machado homered to center (409 feet), Harris scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML SD +194 / LAD -239
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.4%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -207
- SD +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.2 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +17 | SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +73 Elo | LAD 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–40 | Road vs home | 51–284th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 8th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15712nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–77 | 72–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–51 | 64–82 |
| Underdog | 48–26 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 72–79–6 | 71–81–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 21–34 LAD in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 55.