San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-4
- Michael KingPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HurtPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith homered to left (396 feet).0–7
- 6Edman homered to left center (390 feet).0–6
- 4Freeman singled to center, Betts scored.0–5
- 2Freeman singled to center, Edman scored and Pages scored, Betts to third.0–4
- 2Betts walked, De Paula scored, Edman to second, Pages to third.0–2
- 2Edman walked, T. Hernández scored, Pages to second, De Paula to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML SD +104 / LAD -126
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Brock Stewart (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +39 Elo | LAD 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3037–39 | Road vs home | 50–284th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 7th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15692nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–76 | 71–85 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–51 | 63–82 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 72–78–6 | 71–80–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–0–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 21–33 LAD in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 54.